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Demographic transition theory can be used to describe and predict the future population of any area. The theory tells us that the population of any region changes from high births and high deaths to low births and low deaths as a society progresses from rural, agrarian and illiterate to urban, industrial and literate society. These changes occur in stages, which are collectively known as the demographic cycle.
The first stage has high fertility and high mortality rates because people reproduce more to compensate for the deaths due to epidemics and variable food supply. Population growth is slow and most people are engaged in agriculture where large families are an asset. Life expectancy is low; people are mostly illiterate and have low levels of technology. Two hundred years ago all the countries were in this stage.
In the second stage, fertility remains high in the beginning, but it declines with time. This is accompanied by reduced mortality rate. Improvements in sanitation and health conditions lead to decline in mortality. Because of this gap the net addition to population is high. This results in population explosion. Eg. Countries like India.
In the last stage, both fertility and mortality decline considerably. The population is either stable or grows slowly. The population becomes urbanized, literate and has high technical know how and deliberately controls the family size. Some countries even face negative growth of population, E.g., many Western European countries.